Thursday, July 12, 2012

Michigan's Targets In The 2014 Scout75

So far, Scout has compiled a list of the Top 75 players in the country for the 2014 recruiting class and Michigan's targets have placed pretty well in them.  There's no doubt that there will be numerous updates both to the players on the list and players that do not appear before the recruits arrive on campus, but it does start to give us a sense of how Michigan's recruiting is going in 2014 and how Michigan's class might finish.

I don't think this list is perfect by any means and there are some areas that I really think are flawed, but I do think it's worth the time to go through these rankings and analyze the results.  I have generally found that ESPN's basketball recruiting coverage has been the best of all the major recruiting services, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't look at Scout's rankings.  They might look at a player differently that sheds some light on their true talent level.  Even though ESPN is the best, at least in my opinion, they are just one service.  There can be a lot of bias involved, not that I'm accusing anybody, especially with just one service.  To me, this is the most logical reason for using multiple lists.  

Here are the rankings for the 2014 Scout75:

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Overall, the list seems pretty accurate to me.  Kevon Looney is rated #9 by Scout and appears anywhere from #7 to #16 on the other sites.  When a recruit is within ten spots on all the charts, there seems to be a consensus, at least in my opinion.  To me, Looney is a edge top 10 talent for the 2014 recruiting class, which is fantastic.  If Michigan can somehow find a way to get him, he would almost be guaranteed to be Michigan's best recruit in the Wolverines' 2014 class.  I think the odds are very slim of getting a commitment from Looney, but it's a long recruiting process until Signing Day in 2014, so we can't count Michigan out quite yet.

The next target on the list, Rashad Vaughn, has a bit of a different scenario.  Of the three major recruiting services that have ranked him, he ranges anywhere from #17 to #55.  That is some major variation, especially considering that ESPN is the scouting service that has him at #55.  I don't think he should be quite as low as #55, but with the incomplete ratings so far, I think it's pretty clear that Vaughn will be dropping on Scout and Rivals' ratings.  How much he drops is debatable, but I think he will wind up a lot lower than where Scout currently has him at #17.

Moving down, Devin Booker's rating doesn't seem that far out of line.  ESPN and Rivals have both rated him, but they have him at #23 and #27 respectively.  Scout might have him a tad bit too high, but their ranking seems pretty accurate to me.  Keita Bates-Diop is also placed relatively accurately.  He is a little higher on this list than he is on ESPN and Rivals' lists, but not very much and certainly less than 10 spots, which is the general cut-off for me.

Following the same pattern, Jae'sean Tate seems to be placed very accurately.  ESPN has him just one spot lower and although Rivals has him at #63, he appears to be a little better than that rating.  I would definitely side with Scout and ESPN in regards to Tate.  The final recruit on the list, Trevon Bluiett, has a lot of variation in his ratings.  ESPN has him well outside of the ESPN60 and only has him listed as a 3* recruit, the lowest of any of the services.  Rivals has him higher at #49 in their ratings.  Rivals is a bit too high in my opinion, but ESPN seems to be way too harsh.  He's been offered by schools like Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Purdue.  He is better than a 3* recruit without a doubt to me.

Some of Michigan's targets like Tyler Wideman and Bryant McIntosh may not have appeared on the list, but the fact that Michigan has 6 serious targets in the Top 75 players in the nation is incredible, especially because they're all rated #64 or higher.  Obviously, Michigan will not get all of these targets, but it's a good sign of Beilein's great recruiting success in 2014.  Michigan has a great chance at getting some of these players and it's going to be fun to watch who commits and when.

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