Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Reggie Cameron Picks Georgetown Over Michigan

In one of the more unsurprising updates on the recruiting trail, 2013 prospect Reggie Cameron has selected Georgetown.  Cameron was Michigan's top remaining target in the 2013 recruiting class and his decision to go elsewhere will likely wrap up recruiting for this year.  Michigan may not have been his leader, but the Wolverines were in the race for quite awhile for one of the best players in the country.  ESPN had him rated as a 4* and #66 in the class.  There's no doubt that for those holding out hope for a final pick-up in the 2013 class (myself included) there has to be some disappointment.

So, now the obvious question.  Where does this leave Michigan's recruiting and depth chart for 2013 and beyond.  Well, in my opinion, 2013 recruiting is done.  As I tweeted earlier today, the only way I see someone else joining the 2013 recruiting class is if Beilein decides to offer a new recruit.  Most likely, this would be a 3* or below and a "project" type player.  Think of the two late additions to Michigan's 2012 recruiting class, Caris LeVert and Spike Albrecht.  I think both can be good players, but they will have to develop some before they can truly contribute to the team.

Despite adding some late players in the 2012 class, I don't see Michigan offering a lower rated player unless Beilein truly sees something. He has been great at finding underrated players and developing them, so if he does pick up someone, odds are they will turn out to be pretty solid.  That should give some confidence, but it's pretty likely that the 2013 is all wrapped up with Derrick Walton, Mark Donnal, and Zak Irvin.  That may be a bit disappointing, but Michigan is still in great position for the future.

First, Michigan will likely be able to take a pretty good sized 2014 class.  Not only is it pretty likely that players like Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway, Jr. will go to the NBA, but there are a few players in the 2012 class that I could see jumping early, such as Glenn Robinson III and Mitch McGary.  I would put odds at less than 50% that either of them jump after this season, but after the 2013-2014 season?  I could definitely see it happening.  This means that the 2014 class will have to fill in some big holes for the team.

On a similar note, 2014 recruiting is going extremely well so far.  There may only be one commit right now (Austin Hatch), but Michigan is already in on a bunch of big name players such as Devin Booker, Keita Bates-Diop, and Jae'sean Tate.  Like I said, I wouldn't mind taking a "project" player in the 2013 class, but any of these guys would be an upgrade over a project player.  Each of them are good enough to contribute immediately when they arrive at a college campus, while a project player could take years to develop, if they ever contribute.  With the ability to take more of these type of players, I don't blame Beilein one bit if he decides to focus all of his recruiting efforts on 2014 and beyond.

Finally, odds are this doesn't even have that big of a negative impact on the 2013-2014 team either.  As I said earlier, even if both Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway, Jr. go pro, Michigan should have some capable backups that can step in and fill those roles.  Guys like Nik Stauskas, Glenn Robinson III, and Caris LeVert just to name a few.  Then when you add in the recruits from the current 2013 class, the roster doesn't look half bad.  Obviously, Derrick Walton will be the favorite to fill Burke's role and that will certainly be a challenge, but there should be plenty of guys to fill Hardaway's role.  Then if any of the players that fill these roles go pro, Michigan should have some solid incoming recruits in the 2014 class to fill those spots.

So despite Cameron's decision, Michigan's recruiting is still in great shape and the roster is still looking pretty good for the future.  One recruit never makes or breaks a team, but Cameron's decision definitely has finalized the transition to 2014 in my opinion.  Regardless, Michigan's 2013 class is great and I'm excited to see them when they get on campus.

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